2026 Australian Open: Winner Predictions and Best Bets

The 2026 Australian Open launches this Saturday with a fierce competition featuring 128 players eager to claim the first Grand Slam title of the new season. While the tournament promises excitement, the odds suggest a showdown primarily between two superstars: Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

Unbeaten Sinner Paving His Path

Jannik Sinner, the reigning champion, stands as the favorite with odds of -110 at bet365. The Italian has not lost a match in Melbourne since his fourth-round exit in the 2023 event and is looking strong on his way to potentially securing a three-peat.

Sinner’s path, however, does present some challenges:

• Potential Roadblocks:
  • Round 3: Joao Fonseca
  • Round 4: Karen Khachanov
• Current odds: -700 to win his quarter.

Carlos Alcaraz: A Challenging History in Melbourne

Carlos Alcaraz, the young Spanish sensation, is considered Sinner’s closest competitor with odds of +160. Despite a stellar performance across various tournaments, Alcaraz hasn’t advanced past the quarterfinals “Down Under.” Additionally, he faces uncertainty with his recent breakup from longtime coach Juan Carlos Ferrero. This raises questions about his mental preparation leading into the championship.

Key Factors for Alcaraz:

• Struggles at the Australian Open: No quarterfinal appearance yet.
• Performance Anxiety: Uncanny adjustment to coaching changes.

Other Contenders Worth Noting

While Sinner and Alcaraz dominate early conversations, several other players could create significant upsets.

1. Daniil Medvedev at 30/1 (DraftKings)

Once seen as a formidable challenger to the top two, Daniil Medvedev had a rocky 2025 season filled with injuries and inconsistency. However, winning a title in Brisbane at the start of 2026 casts doubts regarding his supposed decline. Medvedev’s placement in Alexander Zverev’s quarter means he can only meet the favorites in later rounds.

Key Stats for Medvedev:

• Career Record vs. Sinner: 7-8.
• Recent form: Dominant play in Brisbane.

Photo Credit: REUTERS

2. Ben Shelton at 100/1 (FanDuel)

Despite being ranked No. 8 in the world and a 2025 Australian Open semifinalist, Ben Shelton is curiously listed at 100/1 to win. Although he secured a Masters title in the previous year, his odds are largely influenced by his draw lining up against Sinner in the quarterfinals.

Reasons to Watch Shelton:

• Seasoned Grand Slam performer.
• Strong potential with favorable matchups against lower-ranked players.

Betting Insights and Conclusions

The 2026 Australian Open promises thrilling matches, and while Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz lead the betting lines, consider some long-shot bets that may yield unexpected rewards.

Final Recommendations:

• Avoid betting heavily on favorites due to potential early-round pitfalls.
• Look at potential upsets within the tournament structure, especially from players like Daniil Medvedev and Ben Shelton.

For further insights on betting strategies and sports betting updates, check reputable sources like ESPN and Sports Illustrated.

Stay tuned for the action as the tournament unfolds, showcasing thrilling tennis from Melbourne Park!