Virginia Special Election: A Preview of 2026 Midterms

A special election on Tuesday for Virginia’s 11th congressional district following the death of Representative Gerald E. Connolly has become a focal point for political observers. This race could signal trends for the upcoming midterm elections in 2026.

Candidates and Campaigns

The election features two notable candidates:

• Stewart L. Whitson (Republican)

  • Background: A former FBI special agent and Army veteran.
  • Key Issues:
  • Public Safety: Advocates for stricter measures against crime.
  • Education: Pledged to eliminate "woke ideologies" from schools.
  • Women’s Rights: Aims to protect the civil rights of girls and women, opposing “radical gender policies.”
• James Walkinshaw (Democrat)
  • Background: Former chief of staff for Connolly and current district supervisor for Fairfax County.
  • Key Issues:
  • Education Equity: Defends existing school policies that allow transgender students to use bathrooms corresponding to their gender identity.
  • Community Focus: Emphasizes overall student safety and quality of education over partisan issues.

Key Controversies

Public School Policies

• Whitson’s Stance: Calls for accountability from school boards that refuse to adopt policies against gender-inclusive bathroom access. He supports aggressive oversight and collaboration with federal authorities to enforce policy changes.

• Walkinshaw’s Response: Critiques Whitson for prioritizing a small percentage of students over the broader educational needs of all students in Fairfax County. He defends the current policies as compliant with state and federal law.

The Political Landscape

• Historically, Virginia’s 11th district has leaned Democratic, making Whitson’s potential victory noteworthy. The last Republican representative, Tom Davis, retired in 2008.
• Voter Demographics: The district is home to over 80,000 federal employees, making it particularly sensitive to changes in federal policy and funding.

Financial Implications

In August, Fairfax County Public Schools found itself in a financial bind when the Department of Education froze approximately $167 million in federal funding due to non-compliance with a settlement regarding their bathroom policies. An ongoing lawsuit by the school board argues that the funding freeze violates federal laws.

Expert Insights

Political strategist Keith Nahigian points out that a Republican win would be unprecedented:

• “Mr. Whitson is running on the strongest two issues: parents’ rights and crime."
• However, he highlights the challenge of converting a historically blue district into a red one, noting the one-party dominance in the area.

Turnout Concerns

With the special election occurring just weeks before the gubernatorial election, turnout is expected to be a critical factor. Whitson himself acknowledged the possibility of “record-low” voter turnout, indicating that most attention is likely on the upcoming gubernatorial race.

Conclusion

As the election day approaches, both candidates are ramping up efforts to mobilize their bases. Whitson seeks to energize conservatives around issues like education and public safety, while Walkinshaw aims to leverage his local influence and familiarity with Fairfax voters. Regardless of the outcome, this race is being closely monitored as a potential indicator of the political climate heading into 2026.

For deeper insights into the election dynamics, refer to the Fairfax County Public Schools funding issues and the impact of federal employment on local politics.

This election is not just about filling a seat—it’s a critical interpretation of how both parties will position themselves leading into the midterms.