Poll Results Shock Republican Circles in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District Election

Introduction

Recent polling results have raised eyebrows among Republicans in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. A survey released by Emerson College has found that Democrats are edging dangerously close to an upset victory in a traditionally Republican stronghold. This is particularly startling given that former President Donald Trump secured the district with a significant 20-point margin in the previous election.

Background

Previous Election Highlights

• Mark Green’s Victory: The former Congressman Mark Green won his 2024 race by 22 points before stepping down to pursue other opportunities.
• Trump’s Performance: In the last election cycle, Trump also dominated the district by a 22-point margin.

Now, Democrats are optimistic as state representative Aftyn Behn enters the race, aiming to capture a seat that covers the suburbs and rural areas surrounding Nashville.

Poll Findings

Key Data Points

According to the recent Emerson College poll:

• Aftyn Behn: 46% support
• Matt Van Epps (Republican nominee): 48% support
• Undecided Voters: 5% of the sample population

Voting Patterns

• Early Voting: Behn leads with 56% to Van Epps’ 42%.
• Election Day Voting: Van Epps has a solid lead, garnering 51% to Behn’s 39%.

Key Demographics:

• Support Among Younger Voters: Behn’s strongest demographic is voters under 40, with 64% support.
• Support Among Older Voters: Van Epps sees increased support among older demographics, with 61% of voters over 70 backing him.

Gender Breakdown

• Men’s Support: Van Epps leads among male voters by nine points.
• Women’s Support: Behn is ahead among female voters by six points.

Margin of Error

With a margin of error just under four percent, Behn is well-positioned for a potential upset, signaling a shift in voter sentiment in the district.

Shift in Trump’s Approval Rating

The poll underscores a dwindling approval rating for Trump in this district, now standing at only 47%. His disapproval rate has inversely climbed to 49%, raising questions about Republican strategies leading up to the election.

Voter Concerns

Voter concerns have shifted notably, with the economy and inflation being cited as the primary issues by 38% of respondents. Other topics of interest include:

• Housing Affordability: 15%
• Immigration and Crime: Only 6% and 5%, respectively.

Republican Concerns

The alarming results have ignited unease among Republican circles, evidenced by:

• Over $4 million funneled into what was anticipated to be an uncontested race.
• Trump’s Call to Action: On social media, Trump urged supporters to vote early and included a link to his voter engagement group, Swamp the Vote.

Response from Conservative Commentators

Conservative commentators are not holding back. Matt Walsh and Clay Travis have called upon voters to prevent Behn from winning the seat, while conservative writer Teri Christoph recently remarked that it’s "time to hit the panic button."

Conclusion

The urgency surrounding the Tennessee 7th Congressional District special election has become palpable. As the race heats up, the implications of these poll results could signal a significant transformation in Tennessee political dynamics. Voters and party officials alike will be watching closely as the election date approaches.

For more information on voter engagement and how to cast your ballot, visit Swamp the Vote.

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