NYC Mayoral Race: Zohran Mamdani’s Dominance Reflected in Betting Markets

More than $350 million has been staked on the outcome of the New York City mayoral race, signaling what some predict could be a landslide election. If current betting trends hold true, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani is favored to win decisively on November 4.

Current Odds Favor Zohran Mamdani

According to Polymarket, the largest online prediction market, Mamdani boasts a phenomenal 91% chance of clinching victory. His primary opponent, former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who has transitioned from a Democrat to an independent candidate, sits at just 9%. The Republican nominee, Curtis Sliwa, has an almost negligible chance, rated below 1%.

Betting Market Trends

• Polymarket Statistics:
  • Mamdani: 91% chance of winning
  • Cuomo: 9%
  • Sliwa: <1%
• On Monday, Mamdani’s chances peaked at 95%, confirming his strong lead in major polls where he is ahead by significant margins.

Early Voting Surge

Early voting in New York commenced on Saturday, and Cuomo’s campaign is now highlighting a notable uptick in early voter turnout—more than five times the number of early voters compared to the same day in the previous election cycle.

• Cuomo’s team emphasizes that over 50% of early voters are 55 years or older, a demographic likely to favor him.
• A new Suffolk poll suggests Cuomo is narrowing the gap, yet he still trails Mamdani by ten points.

Alternative Betting Platforms

The interest in the mayoral election isn’t limited to Polymarket. Another prediction market, Kalshi, has seen over $45 million wagered on the race, with Mamdani holding a 92% chance of victory. The odds on Kalshi reflect a similar trend:

• Mamdani: 92%
• Cuomo: 8%
• Sliwa: 2%

Skepticism Toward Betting Markets

Cuomo’s campaign is downplaying the significance of betting market odds. Rich Azzopardi, a spokesperson for Cuomo, argued that the only market that matters is the one operated by ballot scanners. The Cuomo campaign had previously noted that Polymarket gave him a 66% chance of winning before he lost to Mamdani in the primary by a 12-point margin.

“It’s all vapor," Azzopardi conveyed to The New York Sun.

The Issue with Polls

Over $306 million has been traded on Polymarket for this mayoral race, where bettors can also wager on victory margins. Unlike traditional polling, these odds reflect real-time monetary stakes, which some believe may provide a more accurate gauge of public sentiment.

Political strategists express mixed views about the validity of betting markets. For instance, during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Polymarket indicated a 58% chance for Donald Trump, while conventional polls depicted a much tighter race.

Why Betting Markets are Considered Reliable

• Reduced Virtue Signaling: People are less inclined to give socially acceptable answers when real money is at stake.
• Historical Accuracy: Betting markets have outperformed traditional polling in previous elections.

Engaging the Audience

On social media, Polymarket recently celebrated Mamdani’s soaring odds with a post stating:

“BREAKING: Zohran Mamdani soars to new record highs in the NYC Mayoral Election. 95% chance he’s New York City’s next mayor.”

In a humorous exchange, a user referenced a prior New York Times calculation giving Hillary Clinton a 91% chance in the 2016 election, to which Polymarket retorted, “We’re not the NYTimes.”

Sliwa remains skeptical of the betting markets, stating, "I am not a gambler. I only gamble with my life."

Conclusion

As early voting unfolds and election day draws closer, Zohran Mamdani remains the clear frontrunner according to both betting markets and recent polls. Whether these indicators will hold true when it counts remains to be seen, but the stakes are undeniably high in this eye-catching NYC mayoral race.

For further insights into election betting and prediction markets, consider visiting Polymarket and Kalshi.