Democratic Super PAC Invests Over $20 Million in New Jersey Campaign

A prominent Democratic super PAC is making a bold strategic move by allocating more than $20 million for TV, digital, and streaming ads in New Jersey. This significant investment aims to curb Republican gains in the state ahead of the critical 2024 gubernatorial election. The focus is on preserving Democratic control of New Jersey’s governorship.

The Candidates

Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill

• Mikie Sherrill, a Democratic Congresswoman, seeks to succeed current Governor Phil Murphy, who cannot run again due to term limits.
• Sherrill currently leads in early polling with 51% support compared to her opponent, Republican Jack Ciattarelli, at 31%.

Jack Ciattarelli

• Jack Ciattarelli, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, previously lost to Murphy by a narrow margin of three points in the last gubernatorial election.
• Trump’s influence looms large, with over 52% of voters indicating he is a significant factor in their gubernatorial vote.

Advertisement Strategies and Spending

The Greater Garden State PAC, backed by the Democratic Governors Association (DGA), has taken this proactive advertising step to lock in lower rates and secure premium ad slots before competition intensifies as the election draws near.

Key Points of the Advertising Strategy

• Timing: Early advertisement reservation allows for cost-effectiveness.
• Geographic Considerations: Major TV stations in New York City—where a competitive mayoral race is also expected—fuel concerns about ad space saturation.
• Potential Record Spending: Previous gubernatorial primaries in New Jersey saw expenditures exceeding $85 million, establishing it as one of the most expensive electoral contests in the state’s history.

Poll Insights and Voter Dynamics

A Rutgers University poll reveals that while Sherrill currently leads, historical trends suggest the race could tighten as Election Day approaches.

Important Poll Findings

• Sherrill: 51%
• Ciattarelli: 31%
• Undecided: 18%

Ashley Koning, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, emphasizes that early polling is a transient snapshot of shifting voter sentiment, stating, “A lot can happen between now and November.”

Shifting Political Landscape

New Jersey, historically a solid blue state, is showing signs of becoming a swing state following the narrow margins in the recent presidential elections. Factors contributing to this shift include:

• A significant rise in the number of registered Republicans in the state.
• The voter registration gap between Democrats and Republicans has narrowed to below 1 million.
• A recent voter roll purge led to a reduction of almost 225,000 voters, notably impacting the Democratic count by 50,000.

Republican Sentiment

The Republican Governors Association refrained from disclosing specific advertising budgets but implied that the Democrats’ substantial ad buy reflects their concerns about the race’s competitiveness.

Courtney Alexander, the communications director for the Association, stated, “The DGA knows that Mikie Sherrill is a disaster of a candidate…”

National Implications

The New Jersey gubernatorial race is receiving nationwide attention as it may serve as an early indicator for the 2024 mid-term elections. Similarly, the only other gubernatorial election this year is in Virginia, where former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger holds a narrow lead against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.

Key Gubernatorial Election Takeaways

• Virginia: A potential flip from Republican-held to Democratic.
• Both races are expected to shape Democratic and Republican strategies heading into 2024.

Conclusion

As New Jersey gears up for a pivotal gubernatorial election, the stakes are higher than ever. With significant ad spending underway and shifts in voter registration dynamics, this race is drawing national scrutiny. The upcoming months are expected to bring further developments that could influence not only the state’s future but also the national political landscape.

For more details on the shifting political tides in New Jersey, explore Ballotpedia and track the latest polling data on FiveThirtyEight.