Trump Triumphs Over Harris in 2024 Election: A Deep Dive into Voter Demographics

In a surprising outcome of the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump decisively defeated Vice President Kamala Harris. According to a recent study by the Pew Research Center, Trump’s success can be attributed to a more diverse voter coalition compared to previous elections.

Demographic Shifts: A Key to Trump’s Victory

The 2024 election revealed significant changes in voter demographics. Trump made substantial gains among various racial and ethnic groups:

• Hispanic Voters: Support for Trump surged to 48%, up from 36% in 2020.
• Black Voters: His backing grew to 15%, a notable rise from 8% in the last election.
• Asian Voters: Trump’s support increased to 40%, compared to 30% in 2020.

In stark contrast, in 2016, Trump received merely 28% of the Hispanic vote, while Hillary Clinton dominated with 66%.

Voter Turnout: The Hidden Factor

The Pew analysis highlighted that differences in voter turnout played a crucial role in the outcome. While most voters maintained their habits from 2020, new and returning voters swayed the election in favor of Trump.

Key statistics include:

• Trump retained 85% of his supporters from 2020.
• Harris captured 79% of Biden voters from the previous election, but one in five of those switched allegiances or did not vote at all in 2024.

As Pew noted, "Roughly three-quarters of eligible adults maintained their voting habits," yet the remaining quarter significantly influenced Trump’s victory path.

The Importance of 2020 Non-Voters

Trump garnered 54% of votes from individuals who abstained in 2020. In contrast, Harris received 42% from this group. Despite a drop in voter turnout by 3.1 million compared to 2020, these previously disengaged voters shifted the scale toward Trump.

Exploring Demographic Divides: Education, Geography, and Religion

Education

The voting patterns across educational lines showed distinct preferences:

• Non-college-educated voters favored Trump by a 14-point margin (56% to 42%).
• College graduates leaned toward Harris by 16 points (57% to 41%).

These patterns were consistent among White and Hispanic voters, while Black voters showed minimal educational divides.

Urban vs. Rural Dynamics

Trump maintained his strongholds in rural regions, securing a 40-point margin, while Harris was favored by 65% of urban voters. Suburban voters became a critical battleground, showing a more divided preference.

Religious Attendance

Religious practice significantly correlated with voting behavior:

• Regular attendees (monthly or more) supported Trump at 64% compared to 34% for Harris.
• Conversely, infrequent attendees leaned Democratic, with 56% backing Harris.

Immigrant Voting Patterns: A Surprising Shift

In an intriguing turnaround, naturalized citizens—who represented 9% of the 2024 electorate—nearly split their vote, with Harris edging out Trump at 51% to 47%. This marks a sharp decline from Biden’s earlier dominance in this demographic.

Gender Trends and Young Voters

Gender also played a pivotal role in Trump’s success:

• Men favored Trump by a 12-point margin (55% to 43%), a significant shift from an even split in the previous election.
• Among men under 50, support for Trump rose to 49%, surpassing Harris at 48%, ending Biden’s prior 10-point advantage.

Potential Impact of Increased Voter Turnout

Even if eligible voter participation increased, Trump was likely to maintain his lead:

• 44% of non-voters indicated a preference for Trump versus 40% for Harris.

Scott Keeter, a senior survey advisor at Pew Research, stated, "If somehow every eligible voter had shown up at the polls, it might not have helped the Democrats."

The Popular Vote vs. Electoral College

In a significant political sentiment, nearly 65% of Americans believe the winner of the national popular vote should ascend to the presidency rather than relying solely on the Electoral College. In 2024, Trump achieved victory in both the popular vote (by 2.3 million votes) and the Electoral College (306 to 232).

This analysis underlines the changing face of American politics and the key demographic factors influencing the latest election results. The findings invite further discussion on the implications of these shifts for future political strategies and voter engagement efforts.

For more insights into this year’s elections and voter behavior, explore the full Pew Research Report here.